Publications

The OBR's traditional forecasting tools, designed for incremental policy changes, are struggling to assess transformative reforms. We propose modernizing the institution through academic partnerships and enhanced research capabilities, with a £2.9 million annual investment to strengthen its role in fiscal oversight.

@article{shah2025obr, title={How Can We Strengthen the OBR's Forecasting?}, author={Shah, Rohan and Ser{\^o}dio, Pedro}, journal={UK Day One}, url={https://ukdayone.org/briefings/how-can-we-strengthen-the-obr-s-forecasting}, year={2025} }

With UK housing at its least affordable in 148 years, we propose building new towns near high-wage opportunities to drive economic growth. Drawing inspiration from historical successes like Edinburgh New Town, we advocate for masterplanned extensions and improved infrastructure in key economic hubs.

@article{emerson2025newtowns, title={New Towns for a New Generation}, author={Emerson, Kane and Ser{\^o}dio, Pedro}, journal={UK Day One}, url={https://ukdayone.org/briefings/new-towns-for-a-new-generation}, year={2025} }

An analysis of the economic impacts of proposed factory tax reforms on manufacturing productivity and regional economic development.

@article{serodio2024factory, title={Economic Analysis of Factory Tax Reforms}, author={Ser{\^o}dio, Pedro}, journal={Economic Policy Review}, year={2024} }